Since July 7, 2022, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread (I:102YTYS) has experienced an unprecedented inversion, lasting for over two years. This surpasses the previous record set in 1978, which lasted for 624 days. In an inverted yield curve, short-term bonds yield more than their long-term counterparts, reversing the usual financial landscape. This unusual phenomenon is often seen as a warning sign, indicating potential economic downturns. The fact that this inversion has persisted for such a long period suggests that the United States may be on the verge of one of its most severe recessions, raising serious concerns about future economic stability. However, it is important to note that, as of the current date, the U.S. economy has defied expectations and continued to perform better than anticipated, with no signs of a recession materializing.
