After two consecutive days of steep declines on Wall Street, forecasts of a looming recession have grown even more prevalent—intensifying even more so since the moment U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs across global markets on April 2.
Trump’s Trade Policy Sparks Economic Anxiety, Recession Predictions Jump
Based on the activity on Polymarket, the blockchain-powered predictions platform, expectations of a recession have grown since our previous update on the wager. Just two days ago, following Trump’s announcement of the “Liberation Day” tariff initiative, the probability of a 2025 recession was pegged at 49%. At that point, trading volume hovered near $1.1 million; today, it has climbed to $1.38 million. The likelihood of a recession has also moved higher, now reaching 57%.
Polymarket recession bet on April 5, 2025.
The probability reflected on Polymarket now closely aligns with JPMorgan Chase’s latest projection, as the financial institution formally increased its estimate for a U.S. recession—placing the odds at 60% in light of the economic consequences tied to Trump’s newly imposed tariffs. This makes JPMorgan the first major Wall Street firm to issue a direct recession forecast for 2025, citing the forceful nature of the trade measures.
The bank anticipates a 0.3% contraction in the U.S. economy throughout 2025, with GDP expected to decline by 1% in Q3 and another 0.5% in Q4. The most recent economic calamity has thrown expectations for the upcoming May 7 U.S. Federal Reserve meeting into uncertainty. At present, there’s a 66.7% probability that interest rates will hold steady, while a 33.3% chance remains for a potential quarter-point cut. Polymarket reflects nearly identical probabilities, though with subtle variations in its figures.
