Bitcoin Market Analysis Amidst President Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs
As markets prep for President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, bitcoin remains resilient, posting a current price of $84,609. The digital asset’s market capitalization stands at $1.67 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $19.84 billion and intraday price swings between $81,188 and $85,438. Amid global economic uncertainty, technical indicators across multiple timeframes show bitcoin at a crossroads, balanced between bearish pressure and bullish recovery attempts.
Bitcoin
On the daily chart, bitcoin continues to trade within a wide consolidation band, suggesting indecision among traders. The range between approximately $76,600 and $99,500 defines current market structure, with support holding steady near the $80,000 level and resistance facing rejection close to $95,000. Despite a sideways trend and a slight decline in volume, the bias leans neutral to bullish. A potential entry zone exists around $80,000–$82,000, especially if bullish reversal patterns form, while short-term take profits might be considered at $88,000–$90,000.
BTC/USD 1H chart via Bitstamp on April 2, 2025.
Moving to the 4-hour chart, bitcoin experienced a pronounced decline to $81,188 followed by a swift bounce, recovering to trade between $84,500 and $85,000. The structure reveals a lower high and lower low pattern, indicating a mildly bearish sentiment, though recent price stabilization suggests possible upside. A breakout above $85,500, particularly if supported by strong volume, could mark a reversal. Caution is warranted, however, as wicks and false breakouts near $85,000 may signal market hesitation and liquidity traps.
BTC/USD 4H chart via Bitstamp on April 2, 2025.
On the hourly timeframe, the data highlights a textbook liquidity sweep, with a sharp drop followed by a gradual recovery — a typical pattern used to shake out leveraged positions. Volume spikes during the decline and a slower recovery ascent imply a stop-hunt event. The current formation of higher lows suggests a nascent bullish trend. Scalp-long opportunities may be viable on a successful retest of the $84,000 support, with targets near $86,000–$86,500, though divergences in the relative strength index (RSI) or volume could indicate weakening momentum.
BTC/USD 1D chart via Bitstamp on April 2, 2025.
The oscillator readings offer a mixed bag. The relative strength index, stochastic, commodity channel index, average directional index, and awesome oscillator are all in neutral territory, with values hovering around mid-range thresholds. Notably, momentum shows a sell signal at −1,550, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) reflects a buy signal at −896 — reinforcing the market’s current indecision and potential for a breakout in either direction. These indicators suggest that traders should remain vigilant for confirmation before entering positions.
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The broader moving average picture skews bearish. Both the exponential moving averages and simple moving averages, across 20-day to 200-day intervals, predominantly suggest a sell bias. Only the exponential moving average (10), at $84,443, indicates a buy. This alignment signals that while short-term momentum may support minor rallies, the longer-term outlook still faces resistance from prevailing bearish trends. For now, bitcoin’s resilience above $84,000 keeps bullish hopes alive, though confirmation is required to shift sentiment decisively.
Bull Verdict:
If bitcoin continues to hold above the $84,000 level with increasing volume and successfully breaches the $85,500 resistance, a short-term rally toward $88,000–$90,000 is plausible. The minor uptrend visible on the hourly chart and a buy signal from the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) add weight to the bullish case. A push above these resistance zones could eventually open the door toward $95,000–$99,500, especially if broader market sentiment improves.
Bear Verdict:
Should bitcoin fail to sustain above $84,000 and slip below the $81,188 support level, downside pressure could accelerate. The predominance of sell signals across both exponential moving averages and simple moving averages, along with a bearish momentum reading, points to a fragile market structure. A break below key support may trigger a deeper correction toward the $80,000 demand zone, or even test the $76,600 lower boundary observed on the daily chart.
