Over the last 11 years, dating back to 2013, Bitcoin has typically shown positive performance in July, with five of those years seeing gains exceeding 16%. However, this July appears to be an exception, as Bitcoin is currently experiencing a downturn of 7.77% with three weeks left. Looking ahead, historical data indicates that August and September often yield underwhelming returns, possibly persisting until October, historically known for its robust gains.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to thrive in July, as data from coinglass.com reveals positive returns 63.64% of the time over the last 11 years. This means that in seven out of those years, July has been profitable for BTC. Significant increases were noted in 2013 and 2015, with gains of 9.6% and 8.2% respectively. Subsequent years saw even higher gains, peaking at 24.03% in 2020.
Presently, the narrative is different, with Bitcoin down 7.77% this July, leaving the remainder of the month uncertain. Looking forward, historical trends suggest August has been profitable only 36.36% of the time over the past decade. Despite this, Standard Chartered’s forex and digital assets research team anticipates a potential new all-time high for Bitcoin in August.
September’s historical performance appears even less promising, with positive returns recorded only 27.27% of the time in the past 11 years. In contrast, October has historically been a robust month for Bitcoin, delivering positive returns 81.82% of the time. The upcoming 2024 U.S. election has been cited by Standard Chartered as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin prices.
While history does not always repeat itself, it often rhymes with familiar patterns. Future occurrences may reflect similar themes or trends, though outcomes can vary. The current decline in July, coupled with historically weak performances in August and September, advises caution, but deviations from these patterns are plausible. Despite October’s historical strength and the impending U.S. election, anticipated opportunities may not manifest as expected.
Considering Bitcoin’s past performance in specific months, it’s uncertain whether these trends will continue. Share your thoughts and opinions on this subject in the comments section below.
