The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred just over two weeks ago, causing a drop in the network’s hashprice from over $100 per petahash to below $45 at the start of May. However, there has been a modest rebound, with the hashprice now standing at $50 per petahash. Despite this, the total hashrate of the network has decreased by approximately 50 exahash since the halving.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s total hashrate has remained at around 600 exahash per second (EH/s), occasionally fluctuating slightly above or below this level. This decline follows the all-time high in hashrate just before the fourth halving on April 19, 2024, when it reached 655 EH/s. Since then, there has been a gradual reduction of about 50 EH/s.
This decrease in hashrate coincides with the value of hashing power reaching lows not seen in several years. On May 5, the price of 1 petahash per second (PH/s) of hashpower was $50. The decline in hashprice began about two weeks ago, while the noticeable decline in hashrate started around seven days ago on April 27. Over the last 2,016 blocks, the network has maintained an average hashrate of approximately 622.5 EH/s.
The decline in hashrate has resulted in longer block intervals, which could lead to a decrease in difficulty on May 8, 2024. Projections suggest a potential 3.4% reduction in difficulty at the next retarget. Following the halving, the block subsidy decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Since then, the average fees per block have ranged from 0.90 BTC to 1.01 BTC.
If the price of Bitcoin fails to increase, we may see further reductions in the hashrate. However, miners have taken steps to mitigate some risks by upgrading their equipment to more efficient models. The increased joules per terahash and higher revenues during March and April may provide a significant financial cushion for these operators. Looking ahead, the potential difficulty reduction could help recalibrate operations and impact miner profitability in this new subsidy era.
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