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Bitcoin Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: What Glassnode’s Signals Do—and Don’t—Show

Historical report: Foresight News published these figures on November 11, 2026, at 22:33 (UTC+8), citing Glassnode. They describe conditions at that time, not current market readings.

Bitcoin had fallen below the short-term holder cost basis of $75,600, according to Glassnode’s assessment reported by Foresight News. Glassnode said Bitcoin was underperforming U.S. equities and that capital capable of supporting a rise was continuing to flow out. It estimated that roughly 35% of short-term holder holdings were in profit, while sellers were realizing small losses on average.

Funding and market signals

Glassnode cited a $14.2 billion decline in total stablecoin supply over the preceding 30 days—the fastest contraction since June 2022—and $1.6 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the preceding 20 trading days. After adjusting for the effect of USDT trading below $1, the 30-day average Coinbase premium remained negative, with its deepest discount since February.

It also noted that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.75%, 75 basis points above what it described as the Federal Reserve’s then-current 4% rate. Glassnode interpreted that gap as a sign that bond markets expected further rate increases, while noting it was well below the 244-basis-point gap seen in June 2022.

Counter-signals and price levels

Glassnode said the decline had cleared most leveraged long positions near the price, with the largest concentrated liquidation zone between $59,500 and $62,600. Since the November 5 sell-off, buy orders had continued to exceed sell orders within 5% of the price on Binance and Coinbase spot order books. Wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC had also begun accumulating over the preceding week.

Glassnode framed three conditional levels: a return above $75,600 would support its view of an August trend reversal; a sustained move below $73,000 could mean a longer consolidation; and a close below the June low of $58,500 would invalidate the reversal since August. These are market indicators and scenarios, not a calculation of Bitcoin’s fair value.

Original report: Foresight News