Historical report based on Cointelegraph’s article published November 9, 2026, at 18:03:40 UTC+8. Market figures and expectations below refer to that reporting period.
Bitcoin’s fall to about $73,500 late Sunday, November 8, its lowest level since August 21, put its price below several widely watched reference points. More than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated as markets approached US inflation releases and weighed volatility surrounding Nvidia.
For valuation analysis, the distinction is important: holder cost bases measure estimated acquisition prices, moving averages describe price trends, and liquidations measure forced position closures. None, by itself, establishes Bitcoin’s fair value.
Holder cost bases and price levels
According to TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin slipped below $74,000 shortly before Sunday’s weekly close before briefly recovering above $75,000.
The report identified four reference levels:
| Measure | Reported level | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| 21-week simple moving average | $73,078 | A historical price-trend measure |
| 50-week simple moving average | $75,492 | A longer-term price-trend measure that Bitcoin had fallen below |
| Short-term holder cost basis | $75,691 | CryptoQuant’s Monday estimate for coins that last moved less than 155 days earlier |
| One-to-three-month holder cost basis | About $79,300 | A CryptoQuant community analyst’s estimate for that coin cohort |
Bitcoin was trading below the short-term holder cost basis and approaching its 21-week moving average. These comparisons describe price relative to recent transaction history and past trading levels, rather than an independently calculated intrinsic value.
The CryptoQuant community analyst argued that the approximately $79,300 cost basis could become resistance if recent buyers sold when they reached break-even. That was a behavioral hypothesis, not an assured outcome. The analyst also noted that Bitcoin had remained below that cohort’s cost basis for months during February–April and June–August 2026 before reclaiming it.
Liquidations showed leverage stress, not a confirmed bottom
CoinGlass recorded approximately $1.12 billion in leveraged crypto liquidations over the 24 hours through 9 am UTC on Monday, November 9. That figure covered crypto positions, not Bitcoin alone.
Trader Rekt Capital said on Sunday that selling volume would need to rise before sellers showed signs of exhaustion. The trader associated seller exhaustion with Bitcoin price bottoms, but the report did not establish that such a bottom had occurred.
The liquidation total therefore documented forced deleveraging during the decline. It did not supply a fair-value estimate or confirm that selling pressure had ended.
Nvidia uncertainty added to the market backdrop
Nvidia’s board said Sunday that it had opened an independent investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it had no reason to believe US national security or company secrets had been compromised. China’s foreign ministry denied the spying allegations on Monday.
Nasdaq 100 futures fell early Monday, recovered, and then turned lower again before the US market opened. S&P 500 and Dow futures remained higher when Nasdaq 100 futures reversed lower. The moves followed the previous week’s technology sell-off, during which investors assessed AI spending prospects and potential US regulatory changes after the midterm elections.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian described the investigation’s timing as “unfortunate,” citing Nvidia’s importance to technology, financial markets and the economy, alongside the difficulty of pricing key-person, governance and geopolitical risks.
In South Korea, the Kospi closed Monday down 0.8% at 5,018.85, following a brief trading halt on Friday after an early decline of more than 8%. Vice Minister of Science and ICT Ryu Jemyung told a parliamentary budget committee that contracted Nvidia chip production and deliveries were expected to proceed without disruption, according to CNA.
These developments formed part of the broader risk-market context. They did not provide a direct measure of Bitcoin network activity or holder value.
Inflation, oil and rate expectations were the next inputs
At the time of publication, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was scheduled to release October’s Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, November 10, and Producer Price Index on Friday, November 13, both at 8:30 am ET.
September consumer prices had risen 3.7% year over year. Gasoline prices increased 9.1% from August, accounting for more than half of the monthly rise in the overall index.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded near $90 a barrel on Monday morning. President Donald Trump had told CNN on Sunday that renewed US strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely,” while saying the decision depended on whether Tehran signed an agreement.
Economist Robin Brooks argued that the war was keeping oil prices elevated and that lower crude prices could support Bitcoin, equities and precious metals. He said a decline to $75 a barrel was possible and forecast that Bitcoin would continue to show a negative correlation with oil as the effects of the US midterm elections settled.
That argument depended on falling oil prices easing broader risk premiums and improving the interest-rate backdrop. It was Brooks’ forecast, not a demonstrated valuation relationship.
Meanwhile, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing a 78.8% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman were scheduled to discuss the economic outlook on Tuesday. Waller was due to appear at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference 2026 in London; Bowman was scheduled for the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in Washington.
What the evidence supported
The report documented a price decline below estimated recent-holder acquisition costs, substantial leveraged liquidations and uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions. The central questions were whether recent buyers would sell near break-even and whether oil, inflation and rate expectations would become more supportive of risk assets.
Those inputs help explain positioning and potential supply-and-demand pressures. They do not constitute a Bitcoin fair-value model or establish that the asset was undervalued after the decline.